Science and Environment: Change by Degrees

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When you think of climate change, what initially comes to mind? Do you think of the need to reduce your personal carbon footprint, or do you perhaps think of climate change as an issue purely for politicians to deal with?

In December 2015 the 21st meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) took place in Le Bourget, France. The result of the conference was an agreement to limit the rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, by 2050, with the aim of actually keeping the rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). A commitment was also established to raise $100 billion a year by 2020 to assist developing countries in reducing their carbon emissions. Parts of the agreement are legally binding, while other parts are voluntary.

The collective political effort to tackle greenhouse gases dates back to 1992 when the first Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro. One of the three resulting “Rio Conventions” was the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty established to stabilise greenhouse gases, which now has a membership of 197 parties. The main function of the annual Conference of Parties (COP), since its first session in Berlin in 1995, is to review progress made in implementing the Convention. COP3 saw the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which set internationally binding emission reduction targets for industrialized nations among the convention parties, based on the premise that (a) global warming exists, and (b) it has been caused by man-made carbon-dioxide emissions. Some countries were exempted, including China and India, on the basis that they were not industrialized during the period considered relevant to the current problem.

While it was hoped that COP15 in Copenhagen would produce a binding agreement that could follow the Kyoto Protocol, which expired in 2012, this hope was not realized and Copenhagen was largely considered a failure.

In announcing the final agreement for COP21, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius said that, "perhaps all the planets were not aligned [in Copenhagen], but today they are." He also said that "planetary configuration," a phrase he attributed to the Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon, had "never been as good as today."

Despite such optimism, it is suggested that we have already had a global temperature rise of 1 degree Celsius (about 1.8 degrees in Fahrenheit) since the industrial revolution, and that even if rises are held to 2 degrees Celsius some scientists believe we will still see the melting of the Greenland ice cap, thus rising sea levels, and the destruction of glaciers and coral reefs. Meanwhile, other scientists entertain the idea that the temperature fluctuation of the planet may have less to do with human impact and more to do with natural phenomena.

A recent working paper produced by the Grantham Research Institute, however, concluded that "in terms of greenhouse gas emissions today and in the future, the world is running a higher risk with the climate system than financial institutions, in particular insurance companies, would usually run with their own solvency."

The success of COP21 lay in producing the first accord to commit all countries to cut carbon emissions. It remains to be seen whether the ambitious agreement will be realized in the decades to come, or if, as in the case of the Kyoto Protocol, parties will ultimately renege on their commitments.

As our individual and collective efforts continue to fall short of fully understanding and addressing climate change—not only of solving global warming, but even of coming to a consensus on where to begin in tackling the problem—the question arises as to whether the climate will ever be stable and properly understood? What does it mean when at the critical moment, those tasked with finding solutions regard it as equally rare for people and nations to come into alignment as it is for the planets in our solar system to do so?

If we are unable to agree with one another even about something as vital to our survival as the planet on which we live, it can only mean that human nature itself is at the core of our problems. Until we can address this fundamental issue, we have little hope of securing environmental sustainability. The good news is that there are principles available to us, which—if followed—would offer the solutions that endless negotiating in decades of conferences has been unable to produce. We have only to dust off our Bibles and commit to finding and applying them.

DAN TOMPSETT


More from Vision on this topic:

Climate Futures
Earth's Puzzling Climate
The Missing Dots

Tags: climate change, environmental sustainability, science and environment

Religion and the Bible: Hope Springs (from the) Eternal

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When you think about hope, what comes to mind? Perhaps it is a personal hope, hope for family and friends, for the ecology of the planet, or even for world peace. Depending on your outlook, the attitude you adopt may be that better things are always just around the corner; or that the endemic nature of atrocity and suffering in the world renders hope hopeless!

It is likely that we have heard the optimistic epithet that "hope springs eternal." The quote is from Alexander Pope's Essay on Man (1733-34), where Pope suggests that "Hope springs eternal in the human breast; Man never Is; but always To be blest." Does hope still have relevance for the modern world? If so, where should we be placing our hope for the future?

Musicologist and author, James A. Grimes offers some perspective on the first half of that question. In his 2014 work, Violins of Hope: Instruments of Hope and Liberation in Mankind’s Darkest Hour, Grimes traces the history of violins played by Jews in the Holocaust. Each chapter of the book is devoted to an individual violin, documenting how they were used to save lives, ease suffering and how they eventually came to be acquired by Israeli violinmaker and repairman, Amnon Weinstein, who spent twenty years restoring the instruments in honor of their owners.

The violins have been given into the hands of orchestras, and after sixty years of silence were played by the ancient Old City walls of Jerusalem in 2008. In January 2015 the instruments resounded again in the concert hall of the Berliner Philharmoniker, on International Holocaust Remembrance Day 2015, to mark 70 years since the liberation of Auschwitz. Hope for the future, it would seem, is still an active ingredient in attempting to come to terms with the horrors of the past. As fresh atrocities come to light each day, the need for a certain expectation for tomorrow becomes an ever more urgent quest.

As for where we might place that hope, one ancient poet suggests that good courage and strength of heart come from placing it in God (Psalm 31:24). However, for many today this may seem irrelevant: knowledge about God is increasingly incomplete for most of the population, and in general humanity seems to have little interest in pursuing it. 

Even in the 18th century, Pope suggested that human efforts to know and understand God were presumptuous. "Presume not God to scan," he continued in "Essay on Man." Rather, in a tradition familiar in ancient Greek thinking, he urges his readers to "know then thyself." To Pope, "The proper study of mankind is man." While it is true that of ourselves we cannot come to know God (1 Corinthians 2:11), the difficulty with Pope's alternative is that a philosophy only concerned with ourselves has not been able to solve the problem of human evil. History clearly demonstrates that the answer does not lie within us. To have true hope then, we need something outside of ourselves that we can completely rely upon.

In his letter to the church at Rome, the Apostle Paul writes that the creation was "subjected to futility, not willingly" but "in hope" (Romans 8:20). That's where we are today. The reason for the temporary subjection to futility was sin, the hopeless desire of human beings to be the legislators of what is good and evil. The hope that Paul speaks of is the real hope founded in Jesus Christ, the Creator, who has already come in the flesh as the Immanuel (meaning "God with us"). He was described in prophecy as "a light to the nations" (Isaiah 42:6) and was seen, touched and heard by human beings directly at His first coming, when he spoke of a plan to benefit all of humanity: not just to save a few.

It is Jesus Christ who now represents the only certain hope for a better world to come

DANIEL TOMPSETT

 

From the Latest Issue of  Vision:

Insight: A Cross of Iron

As the world arms itself with more and more nuclear and conventional weapons, we find ourselves in a continuing pattern of warfare. And that’s just as Jesus said it would be.

Tags: religion and the bible